Monday, September 28, 2009

Top 10 - Week 4

I got too caught up in Cal, Miami, Ole Miss (even though I had them #8) and UNC. This is how I see them if they played on a neutral field.

Week 4

1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Florida
4. Oklahoma
5. Purple and Gold, play in Lew-si-ana
6. Virginia Tech
7. USC
8. Ohio State
9. Boise State
10. Iowa

Notes for week #5. I fully expect USC to lose @ Cal. I had a hard time putting USC @ #7, but they did beat OSU so I gave them the spot.

Week 4 in Review

What a week it was. A bunch of highly ranked teams lost, some in wonderful fashion. Another escaped and 1 team benefited in a big way. Let’s review week 4.

It wasn’t a good week to be in the top 10. Ole Miss kicked off the week with a Thursday night loss to South Carolina. I had Ole Miss pegged as one of my overrated teams so shocked I wasn’t. Then came Saturday...

Saturday. Miami was steamrolled right off the bat by VT. It was a sloppy disaster of a field but Miami looked like the team we thought they were. A young team with some talent but nowhere near the top five. I bought into the hype as much as anyone. It would have been the biggest disappointment if not for…

California. I thought long and hard Saturday night and in the end I couldn’t think of another team that laid down this big in a big game. It was a disaster. The game was tied 3-3 and then all hell broke loose. Cal could do little on offense and Oregon did whatever they wanted to Cal. In the end, a team I picked to finish 3rd and undefeated showed me they are just a soft team who still doesn’t know how to win the big game. However, all it not lost. If they rebound and beat USC next week, they still IMO have a shot at the Rose Bowl. I can see Oregon dropping two games somewhere along the line.

Penn St. After 10 minutes it looked as if Penn St. was going to walk away with this one. Then Iowa shut the Lions down. A big special teams blocked punt for TD sealed it and Iowa suddenly controls their destiny in the big 1011. This was a huge win for Iowa and that can’t be overstated. If Michigan wins in East Lansing, Michigan@ Iowa becomes a very intriguing game.

Houston and LSU. Both escaped. Houston won by a point over Texas Tech at home and LSU needed a goal line stand to stay perfect at Missy St. I still don’t get the 3rd down pass but that was one hell of a defended pass by LSU.

Biggest loss: Florida. With the way Tebow runs the ball you have to wonder if this isn’t his first concussion. In two weeks UF goes to LSU in a battle of top 5 teams. I would be surprised if Tebow is on the field for that game. Hopefully the doctors have no pressure from Meyer or anyone else to clear a person not ready to play.

Biggest win: Oregon/VT. Both were looking to prove their worth at home over top 10 teams. Both won big, although Oregon is somehow behind the Golden Bears in the latest Harris Poll. Harris poll voters = fucking morons.

Biggest benefactor: Boise State. Boise continues to tramp along an abortion of a schedule and keeps moving up as everyone else loses. At this rate, they’ll end up around #2 by year end. Hopefully the computers will kill them for their schedule.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Week 4 Predictions

Just scores this week.

South Carolina 24 - Ole Miss 23

Michigan 37 - Indiana 20

TCU 20 - Clemson 17

Missy St. 24 - LSU 21

Alabama 37 - Arkansas 10

Cal 38 - Oregon 27

UNC 21 - GT 17

Miami 28 - VT 20

PSU 31 - Iowa 23

TTU 42 - Houston 40

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Week 3

Biggest Win (part 1): Washington. Nothing else needs to be said but… Carroll yet again found a way not to prepare his team in another heavily favored game. This is now a full blown trend and Pete needs to figure something out to give us the USC/SEC match we have been waiting for.

Biggest Win (part 2): Florida State. Starting 1-2 with a late 10 point win over Jax St. would have caused a meltdown in Seminole land. Instead, FSU went to Provo and took BYU apart from the start. This bought Seminole faithful another week of sanity and it showed BYU for what it was. A decent team who pulled a fast one on all of us in week 1.

Biggest Win (part 3): Boise State. In a game that went up and down with huge plays from start to finish, Boise got past the last remaining hurdle on their way to a BCS bowl. I hope it doesn’t happen as their schedule is a total abortion. If you want to be included with the big boys, then play a big boy schedule.

Biggest crock of shit: Coaches Poll. So let me get this straight. BYU is 2-1. FSU is 2-1. FSU drilled BYU in Provo yet BYU is still ranked higher. Someone help me on this. Please.

Biggest Letdown: Tenn @ UF. Ten points. Ten fucking points. We were all hoping for a good 30 point hammering but Tebow fumbled and the dream was dead. Monte Kiffin was the coach of the day. His son is still a d-bag.

Worst Loss: Michigan State. You are 1-1 and you have to go to Wisconsin in week 4. So what do you do? You lose yet another game in heartbreaker fashion. Miss a wide open TD pass and then you throw a terrible pick the very next play. Thanks for playing.

Biggest game of week 4: Miami @ VT. We want to know how good Miami is. So far so good with wins over FSU and GT. A win on the road against the 2 time ACC champ would make them legit to a lot of people. And OU comes up next.

Hate fest for the coming years: Kiffin and Meyer. They were both talking smack before the game and the post game handshake was ice cold at best. With the 10 point win that was expected to be about 30, Urban was critical of the Tennessee play calling. Urban then went with a minor flu excuse to which Kiffin used to say they’d use the same excuse the next time they don’t play as well as they thought they would. Awesome.

Who is really #1: UF, Texas? UF gets it based off past performance but right now, nobody is playing better than Alabama.

Best game of the week: Nebraska @ VT. This game was a total snooze fest for the better part of 59 minutes. Then Tyrod Taylor discovered he had arms and moved VT down the field with one great pitch and catch which set up his scrambling TD throw to win the game 16-15.

Monday, September 21, 2009

Week 3 Top 10

These rankings are not how I see the season playing out but rather how I see it if they were playing on a neutral field right now.

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Cal
5. Miami
6. Penn State
7. Team from Baton who gives a shit.
8. Ole Miss
9. Oklahoma
10. North Carolina

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Week 3 Predictions

Tennessee @ Florida - I keep thinking about this game and the more I do, I think Tennessee is going to take a worse beating than most think. The line is 28 and I think Florida covers it. Easy. The Post Tebow era starts in 4 months and the game shifts back to Knoxville in 2010 so this is the best chance to inflict pain on Tennessee for Florida. I think Florida overruns Tennessee at every point and wins going away.
Prediction: UF 52 – UT 10


Texas Tech @ Texas – I have been told this game will be closer than we all think after the barn burner in 2008. The game is at Texas where in the past 4 meetings, Texas has won by an average score of 49-26. TTU is without Crabtree, Harrell and Lubbock. Texas should have superior talent at every position. My feeling is Texas has looked bad due to playing two cupcakes to start the season and they knew talent alone would be enough to get the win. They know this game counts and Mack will have them plenty fired up.
Prediction: Texas 42 – Texas Tech 24

Michigan St. @ Notre Dame – Both lost heart breakers in week 2 and both seriously need a win to avoid the dreaded 2 loss start, which instantly eliminates them from any chance at a BCS bowl. State is going to have issues covering Tate and Floyd and Claussen should have plenty of time to throw. The game is also in South Bend. IT is always nice to see either of these teams lose, but I like Notre Dame by 14.
Prediction: Notre Dame 35 – MSU 21

Nebraska @ Virginia Tech – VT steps out with another quality non-conf opponent but this time gets them at Lane which will make all the difference. TT should be able to move around the Nebraska defense which is still a year or two from competing against the Big12 south. I thought VT was overrated to start the season but I win here would be big for VT and the ACC.
Prediction: VT 23 – Nebraska 20

California @ Minnesota – This game is high on my interest meter. Cal has to travel for an early kickoff as they did last year against Maryland. And we all know what happened then. Minnesota has a nice new stadium which should be packed with highly ranked Cal coming in. Minnesota got off to a solid start with wins @ Syracuse and home to Air Force. Now they get Best and Company who wrecked Maryland and EWU. I think this stays close early before Cal slowly pulls away in the 2nd half.
Prediction: Cal 41 – Minnesota 24

USC @ Washington – Looks like Matty Legend is out for Washington so Corp has his chance to shine. I think he makes it count and this isn’t the game that traps USC in a game they shouldn’t lose. Washington is still a couple years away from being a legit bowl team and I think USC takes it out on them.
Prediction: USC 45 – Washington 17

Georgia Tech @ Miami – We all know what GT is going to do. Run the option left and right mixed in with a shot load of dive plays. Miami held FSU to 110 rushing yards but triple that for GT. Miami is overrated based on 1 win against a very average FSU squad.
Prediction: GT 28 – Miami – 20

Other games of interest:
Utah @ Oregon: Oregon 28 – Utah 27
Boise St. @ Fresno St.: BSU 42 – Fresno 21
Arizona @ Iowa: Iowa 24 – Arizona 23
Cincy @ Oregon St.: Cincy 38 – Oregon St. 27

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Ten Things

1. Saturday was the single best day of college football I have ever watched. Second place isn’t even close. I watched all or parts of the following games:

Central Michigan @ MSU – Central gets two cracks at a 40 yard FG, making the second to win it. This after missing the 2pt. conversion to win it and then recovering a beautiful onside kick.

ND @ Michigan – It goes back and forth the entire game and ends after Tate Forcier scrambles (A QB that can move what a concept) and throws a TD pass to Matthews.

UCLA @ Tennessee – Defensive battle, UCLA QB ends up with a busted jaw but not after the UCLA “D” makes a goal line stand for the ages, then hangs on in the final few minutes for the win.

Houston @ Oklahoma St. – Okie Light was my pick for one of the most overrated teams in the country. They look good enough beating UGA, but Houston did whatever they wanted. The D still isn’t fixed and they’ll lose a couple more games.

S. Carolina @ UGA – All offense and it came down to S. Carolina throwing an incomplete pass as time was running down. Another great game.

USC @ Ohio St. Another game with a lot of defense but in the end, a couple big throws from Barkley and Joe McKnight marching down the field. In the end it was all tears for Ohio St., yet again. I love it.


2. It was the best football day for me personally since the 1997 Rose Bowl. MSU lost a heartbreaker, Michigan beat rival #2 with a late TD pass and Ohio State still can’t beat anyone worth a damn. It can only go down from here.

3. The ACC is still trash. Jacksonville State took FSU to the wire, Maryland needed OT to beat James Madison and UCONN took a late safety to blow a 10 point 4th quarter lead to UNC, losing 12-10.

4. The Big1011 isn’t far behind. MSU lost to CMU, Fresno blew a lead and lost to Wisconsin in double OT, and Northwestern beat a terrible Eastern Michigan team by 3. Ohio St failed again; at home this time and Penn St. could only muster a 3 td win over Syracuse. Purdue went west and lost a close one to Oregon but at least Iowa won. Over the worst team in the Big 12, ISU. Minnesota and Michigan carried the banner this week.

5. Pete Carroll just gets it done. He’ll take his team just about anywhere and when they do, they play well. I know we’d all love to see USC vs. a great SEC school, so why don’t they make that happen? I’m sure there is 1 coach in the SEC who isn’t a pussy. Miles? Richt? Saban? USC vs. SEC would divide the country along the lines of the civil war. The USC v. Alabama would have a ton of built in story lines. USC was the school that whipped that Alabama ass back in the day and helped open the eyes of a state. Plus two ex-failed NFL coaches now leading two of the biggest programs in college football history. Alabama is willing to play people (Clemson, VT and PSU coming up) and USC isn’t going to run scared. This needs to happen.

6. Tate Forcier should have had 17 threesomes Saturday night. The kid took Michigan from the brink of a 5 win season, to a bowl bid. I can’t believe they won’t win at least 4 or their next 10 games. Seven wins is more than acceptable but if they manage 8 or more (I’m sticking with 7) heads will explode in Ann Arbor. The defense needs to become a lot better. Cissoko I’m afraid is the 2nd coming of Morgan Trent.

7. UCLA is better than I thought. I figured a two TD win by Tennessee would be the end result. UCLA came up with a great goal line stand but lost their starting QB for a couple weeks with a broken jaw.

8. LSU is the most overrated team in the polls right now. They are #9 in the AP and #7 in the SID poll. They beat Washington, a bad Washington team in Seattle and then put in a lackluster performance against Vandy at home. Yet they are still ranked in the top 10.

9. We still have 20 teams in the AP top 25 who have no losses. This number will be in the single digits by the end of week #5.

10. Florida finally plays a team with a faint pulse. It will be interesting to see if Meyer runs it up. Next year begins the P.T. 9Post Tebow) era at UF and they get to travel to Tennessee. I say he takes it out on them in spectacular fashion.

Rankings - Week #2

From philsteele.com

http://www.philsteele.com/miscpages/AP_CCH_POLLS/09_ap_cch.html

R.I.P. Patrick Swayze

The lead in the greatest "bad" movie ever, Road House, died yesterday.

R.I.P. you wonderful bastard.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Week 2 Bets (Week 1 Recap)

Went 3-3 last week in my co-worker bets.

Boise -5 WIN
Wash +17 WIN
Alabama -7 WIN
OU -21.5 LOSS
UGA +6 LOSS
FSU -5.5 LOSS

This week I have:

GT -5
ND -3
Tenn -8
Ohio State +6.5

Week 2 Predictions and Thoughts

I like Southern Cal in a close one. This has shaped up to be a USC blowout by all accounts. USC rolled at home while Ohio St. let Navy walk all over them before winning by four. That being said I think Pryor makes enough plays to keep it close. Ohio State has the night game in the Shoe, never an easy place to play, with a freshman QB who is bound to make a mistake or two at some point. This allows Ohio State to play the classic “can’t quite” match them game in route to a 27-20 USC win.

People are too hyped up over Michigan’s 31-7 win over WMU. Amazing what passes for a raging success in Ann Arbor these days. ND has experience where it counts and Floyd is a top 5 WR. They also have experience along the lines and Clausen is bound to start winning some legit road games. I like Notre Dame 30-17.

The ACC needs a big week. The schedule for week #2 is filled with a giant pile of bullshit. They need to win all of these OOC games in order not to be disbanded Saturday night.

We’ll get a better understanding of what UCLA is made of. If they can beat Tennessee in Knoxville, it might be the big spark UCLA needs to be the program they think they are. I still like Tennessee by a couple touchdowns.

Interesting game nobody is talking about. Oregon State @ UNLV. Pac-10 vs. MWC. Both won easy openers but if UNLV can pull off the win at home, it gives BYU yet another boost, although BYU will lose at least two games.

Oklahoma lost both Bradford for a few weeks and Gresham for the season. How will they react? They play Idaho State who lost to ASU 50-3 last week. Idaho State is one of the very worst D-1AA schools. OU could score 140 points if they wanted to but I suspect 77 will do this week.

UNC must drub UCONN. If not, the ACC takes yet another black eye. The media love affair with Butch Davis rolls on but a loss here would be a big stumble.

Al Groh – Virginia. As if a loss at home to William & Mary wasn’t enough, UVA gets TCU in the 2nd game of the year. I can’t believe UVA doesn’t have the coin to buy Groh out.


Game of the Week: USC @ Ohio State (of course).
Coach who could be fired after week 2: Al Groh
Teams on upset alert: BYU, UNC & Iowa
Worst game of the week: Morgan St. @ Akron

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Week 1 in Review

From Blount knocking out a Bronco to FSU dropping every pass in sight, here are my thoughts on week 1.

All eyes are on BYU. The chances of them running the table are slim but with an upset over OU, even with Bradford getting hurt, the world is theirs. They play FSU, TCU and Utah and with a win over OU, they might be able to lose a game and still remain in the hunt for a BCS game.

I almost lost my mind Saturday. At one point I had 5 different games going and at that moment, all the waiting around for the season was worth it.

The ACC sucks. I suppose you hang your ACC cap on the UNC over The Citadel hook and then hide from everyone else. Maryland went west and was taken apart by Cal. VT hung around with Bama until Bama decided enough was enough and ended and ACC>SEC thoughts. NCSU was shut down @ home by an equally average SEC team. GT did manage a 20 point win over a team nobody cares about. And Duke needs to disband their football program.

The Big1011 isn’t much better. PSU and Ohio St. struggled at home. PSU would have scored 70 on Akron. It wasn’t that they took it easy, it was they couldn’t do it. Ohio State gave up long plays by land and sea to Navy. Who lets Navy score on a 90 yard pass play? Iowa needed to block two FGs with time running out to survive N. Iowa in Iowa City. Minnesota was taken to OT by ‘Cuse. All in all not a great weekend for the Big1011.

Oklahoma St shut me up. I figured the entire game would go the way of the first 5 minutes. Okie St. shut UGA down and in the process made the 2nd biggest statement in college football behind BYU. Their defense was taken apart by everyone and was the huge question mark coming into the season. After the early UGA TD, Okie St. allowed them to do nothing.

Jake Locker will scare some people. Washington is going to be bad again but they hung with a very good LSU team all night long. They have two more chances to shock the college football world with games against USC and Cal, although I would bet they get trounced in both.

The college crew knows all about my man crush on Brian Kelly. I picked Rutgers to win the Big East. As I sat down to watch the man Michigan should have hired lead the Bearcats to a ass whoopin’ Blount could be proud of I thought… “BK is going to get a big time job and haunt me for years.” He is going to end up at Wisconsin or Iowa and destroy Michigan. I know it.

People are getting too excited over Michgian's win. It was Western Michigan people. The Detroit papers were gushing over the performance Michigan laid down Saturday. It was a must win game but it was Michigan vs. a MAC school. Give it 6 weeks people then if they only have 1 loss, I'll get a little more excited.

The MAC is back to what they should be. The place kids go when they can't play for a Big1011 school. The MAC had a couple years where they thought they were something more than a pretty bad conference. Saturday they revisited their past. To see the damage:http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/scoreboard?confId=15&seasonYear=2009&seasonType=2&weekNumber=1

Biggest surprises:
BYU – What can be said? Held OU to 13 points.
Oklahoma St. – Shut down UGA and won fairly easily.
Miami – Not that FSU was a world beater but they got the win.

Biggest disappointments:
OU – With or without Bradford, you have to score more than 13 points.
Oregon – Nothing needs to be said. Dominated.
Rutgers – See above.

Friday, September 4, 2009

Thoughts from Thursday and upcoming week 1

S. Carolina @ NCSU - I have to admit that I have never been more letdwon by the 1st game of the season than this one. Both teams looked like total shit on offense and it was just a poorly played game. Looks like the refs could use some work identifying blatant face masking calls.

Oregon @ Boise St. - Two things. Blount is a moron. From punching his own teammate to the Boise punk, to the fans and security detail, he did everything wrong. Talking shit and then going for -5 yards had to sting. Expect him to get at least 3 games although I wouldn't argue if he was gone for the year. The other issue is Boise will now roll through an awful schedule and finish the year undefeated. They need to force the issue and join the MWC.

73 point spread. I don't think Florida will cover it. Figure CS finds a way to get 1 score and Florida won't go over 80 to cover. They are saving it up for Tennessee.

People are on edge in Ann Arbor. From the 20 hour rule breaking, to RichRod getting scammed it has been a rough week for Michigan football. Hiller the WMU QB is good. Really good and I can see him keeping WMU in the game. I think Michigan wins it but anything less than a 2 td win is going to be seen as a failure.

I think Gresham not playing against BYU is a total non factor. OU is going to win this game 50-23. They need to look as good as possible in case they do end up with one loss. That Boise win had to have changed the thinking for the possible big time 1 loss schools (LSU, TEX, OU, Bama, Ohio State, Penn St, etc).

Cal is going to take out Maryland in short order. Everyone knows my thoughts on Cal.

Penn St. should apologize to all the fans who bought tickets to what Penn St. calls an "non conference schedule."

Kudos to Alabama, VT, OU, BYU, UGA and Okie St for having balls in week 1.

Speaking of UGA @ Okie St, I like UGA to win outright. I think we see yet again an SEC defense showing the Big12 how it is done.

Some bets I placed this week.

Ohio St -21.5 over Navy. $50
UGA ML @ +175. $200 to win $350.

I also am running a $5 per game bet with a co-worker.

Bets for week 1.

I have
Boise -5 WIN
Wash +17
Alabama -7
U -21.5
UGA +6
FSU -5.5

It is amazing how the Miami/FSU game has fallen. I remember in 1992 and 1993, people being as interested in that game as they were about the Michigan football game on those days. And 1 of those games was against Michigan St. Now the "battle for Florida" is almost a total afterthought.